Does Artificial Intelligence Moderate the Effect of Carbon Risk on Firm Financial Risk in Indonesia

  • Isnaini Nuzula Agustin Universitas Internasional Batam, Indonesia
  • Jolin Universitas Internasional Batam, Indonesia
  • Badriatul Mawadah Universitas Internasional Batam, Indonesia
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Carbon Risk, Firm Financial Risk, Zmijewski X-Score

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of carbon risk on firm financial risk and examine the moderating role of Artificial Intelligence Innovation. The research focuses on carbon-intensive companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) using a quantitative research approach. Secondary data drawn from financial statements, annual reports, and sustainability reports over the period 2018-2024 (382 observations). The data were analyzed using panel data regression and Moderation Regression Analysis (MRA). The research findings indicate that carbon risk has a positive and significant effect on firm financial risk driven by higher compliance costs, regulatory pressure, and reputational risks faced by companies with high carbon emissions. Additionally, AI innovations weakens this link by improving efficiency, risk analysis, and decision-making. The implications of this study indicate that firms should make greater use of Artificial Intelligence in their risk management strategies to strengthen financial resilience and promote sustainability. The novelty of this study lies in its analysis of the moderating effect of Artificial Intelligence on the relationship between carbon risk and firm financial risk, particularly in developing countries such as Indonesia.

References

Agustin, I. N., Tan, M., & Marheni, D. K. (2025). Assessing the moderating role of geopolitical risk in the nexus between ESG performance and stock price crash risk : A GMM approach. Journal of Accounting and Investment, 26(3). https://doi.org/10.18196/jai.v26i3.26923

Al-Fakir Al Rabab’a, E., Rashid, A., Shams, S., & Bose, S. (2024). Corporate carbon performance and firm risk: Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries. Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, 20(2), 100427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcae.2024.100427

Angie, A., Subramanyam, R., & Anand, G. (2025). Carbon management practices and associations with firm performance. Journal of Environmental Management, 391, 126414. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126414

Aydoğmuş, M., Gülay, G., & Ergun, K. (2022). Impact of ESG performance on firm value and profitability. Borsa Istanbul Review, 22, S119–S127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.11.006

Azam, A., Ahmed, B., Sultana, S., Nisar, P., & Mulla, A. I. (2023). Comparative analysis of financial health of selected Indian metals and mining companies using the Altman Z-score and Zmijewski models. European Economic Letters, 13(5), 519–528.

Bolton, P., & Kacperczyk, M. (2021). Do investors care about carbon risk ?. Journal of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.008

Chen, P., Gao, J., Ji, Z., Liang, H., & Peng, Y. (2022). Do artificial intelligence applications affect carbon emission performance?—Evidence from panel data analysis of Chinese cities. Energies, 15, 5730. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15155730

Chen, Y., & Jin, S. (2023). Artificial intelligence and carbon emissions in manufacturing firms: The moderating role of green innovation. Processes, 11, 2705. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr11092705

Dewaelheyns, N., Schoubben, F., Struyfs, K., & Van Hulle, C. (2023). The influence of carbon risk on firm value: Evidence from the European Union emission trading scheme. Journal of Environmental Management, 344, 118293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118293

Dhar, P. (2020). The carbon impact of artificial intelligence. Nature Machine Intelligence, 2, 423–425. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42256-020-0219-9

Ding, X., Li, J., Song, T., Ding, C., & Tan, W. (2023). Does carbon emission of firms aggravate the risk of financial distress? Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters, 56(3), 104034. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104034

Duan, T., Li, F. W., & Wen, Q. (2025). Is carbon risk priced in the cross section of corporate bond returns? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 60(1), 1–35. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109023000832

Freeman, R. E. (1984). Strategic management: a stakeholder approach. Pitman.

Fritz-Morgenthal, S., Hein, B., & Papenbrock, J. (2022). Financial risk management and explainable, trustworthy, responsible AI. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence, 5, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2022.779799

Gulo, J. K., Rosyidasari, F., & Darmayanti, Y. (2025). Comparative analysis of the Altman and Zmijewski models for predicting financial distress conditions of textile and garment companies listed on the IDX 2020-2024. International Journal of Scientific Research and Management, 13(07), 9378–9385. https://doi.org/10.18535/ijsrm/v13i07.em10

Hayat, A., Heniwati, E., & Rusliyawati. (2025). Analisis financial distress dengan model Z-score , S-score, dan X-score. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 4(4), 695–706. https://doi.org/10.54259/akua.v4i4.5600

Hesniati, Stefani, C., & Budiman, J. (2025). When risk-taking meets ESG: Implications for firm performance in Indonesia. Golden Ratio of Finance Management, 5, 600–610. https://doi.org/10.52970/grfm.v5i2.1670

Houqe, M. N., Opare, S., Zahir-Ul-hassan, M. K., & Ahmed, K. (2022). The effects of carbon emissions and agency costs on firm performance. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15040152

Hua, J., Wang, R., Hu, Y., Chen, Z., Chen, L., Osman, A. I., Farghali, M., & Chen, L. (2025). Artificial intelligence for calculating and predicting building carbon emissions: A review. Environmental Chemistry Letters, 23(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10311-024-01799-z

Huang, Z., & Xiao, Z. (2023). Dynamic capabilities, environmental management capabilities, stakeholder pressure and eco-innovation of Chinese manufacturing firms: A moderated mediation model. Sustainability, 15, 7571. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097571

IPCC. (2023). Climate change 2023: Synthesis report. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

Jihadi, M., Vilantika, E., Hashemi, S. M., Arifin, Z., Bachtiar, Y., & Sholichah, F. (2021). The effect of liquidity, leverage, and profitability on firm value: Empirical evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3), 423–431. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no3.0423

Kalash, I. (2021). The impact of environmental performance on capital structure and firm performance: The case of Turkey. Society and Business Review, 16(2), 255–277. https://doi.org/10.1108/SBR-11-2020-0138

Khan, N. U. (2025). “Soft” climate change exposure and firm performance across countries: Legitimacy theory perspective. Business Strategy and the Environment, 34, 8554–8570. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.70029

Khatib, S. F. A., Ismail, I. H. M., Salameh, N., Abbas, A. F., Bazhair, A. H., & Sulimany, H. G. H. (2023). Carbon emission and firm performance: The moderating role of management environmental training. Sustainability, 15(13), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310485

Kleimeier, S., & Viehs, M. (2021). Pricing carbon risk: Investor preferences or risk mitigation ?. Economics Letters, 205, 109936. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109936

Kozak, S., & Wierzbowska, A. (2025). The impact of climate change on the risk of bankruptcy of agricultural companies in Poland: Regional characteristics. Sustainability, 17, 10217. https://doi.org/10.3390/su172210217

Lee, J.-H., & Cho, J.-H. (2021). Firm-value effects of carbon emissions and carbon disclosures—Evidence from Korea. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(22), 12166. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182212166

Li, S., Song, R., Na, S., & Yan, T. (2025). Artificial intelligence empowerment and carbon emission performance: A systems perspective on sustainable cleaner production. Systems, 13(10), 916. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13100916

Lu, W., Zhu, N., & Zhang, J. (2021). The impact of carbon disclosure on financial performance under low carbon constraints. Energies, 14(14). https://doi.org/10.3390/en14144126

Luu, Q. T., Thi, H., Nguyen, T., Ngoc, T., Tran, D., & Ho, T. T. (2026). Financial constraints and corporate bankruptcy risks in China : The buffer role of cash holdings. PLOS ONE, 21(1). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341114

Martanti, R., Lestari, E., Situmorang, M., Pratama, M. I. P., & Bon, A. T. (2021). Financial distress analysis using Altman (Z-score), Springate (S-score), Zmijewski (X-score), and Grover (G-score) models in the tourism, hospitality, and restaurant subsectors listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period. Proceedings of the 11th Annual International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management Singapore, 4249–4259.

Miah, M. D., Hasan, R., & Usman, M. (2021). Carbon emissions and firm performance: evidence from financial and non-financial firms from selected emerging economies. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(23). https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313281

Nguyen, P. D. (2026). Determinants of market capitalization of listed firms : evidence from an emerging economy. Journal of Economic Studies, 27(1), 38–55. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-06-2024-0202

Palea, V., & Drogo, F. (2020). Carbon emissions and the cost of debt financing: What role for policy commitment, firm disclosure and corporate governance? Business Strategy and the Environment, https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.2550

Peng, Z., Zhang, Y., & Sun, T. (2025). Big data-driven carbon trading and industrial firm value based on DEA and DID. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research, 20(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/jtaer20010043

Rokhmawati, A., Sarasi, V., & Tawila, L. (2024). Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model. Geography and Sustainability, 5(4), 577–587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.003

Sastroredjo, P. E., & Suganda, T. R. (2025). ESG and financial distress: The role of bribery, corruption, and fraud in FTSE All-Share companies. Risks, 13(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/risks13030041

Siddique, A., & Karim, S. (2025). Can ESG disclosure predict carbon risk ? Evidence from machine and deep learning models. Finance Research Letters, 83, 107672. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107672

Singhania, M., & Gupta, D. (2024). Impact of environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure on firm risk: A meta-analytical review. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 31(4), 3573–3613. https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.2725

Suprapto, Y., & Lindawati, L. (2023). The effect of financial ratio on firm value: Food and beverage sector listed in IDX. At-Tadbir Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 7(2), 139–152. https://doi.org/10.31602/atd.v7i2.11846

Tajik, O., Golzar, J., & Noor, S. (2024). Purposive Sampling. International Journal of Education and Laguage Studies, 2(2), 1–9.

Thi, L., Tran, H., & Quang, V. (2025). Carbon emissions, firm-level climate change exposure, and corporate cash reserves. Business Strategy and the Environment, 34, 5158–5180. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.4188

Trinks, A., Mulder, M., & Scholtens, B. (2020). An efficiency perspective on carbon emissions and financial performance. Ecological Economics, 175, 106632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106632

Vo, D. H. (2023). Market risk, financial distress and firm performance in Vietnam. Plos One, 18(8), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0288621

Vu, V. T. T., Hoang, K., & Huynh, T. L. D. (2025). Carbon transition risk, emissions trading schemes, and firm performance: International evidence. Managerial and Decision Economics, 46(2), 1297–1314. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.4434

Wang, Q. (2023). Financial effects of carbon risk and carbon disclosure: A review. Accounting & Finance, 63(4), 4175–4219. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.13090

Wang, Q., Li, Y., & Li, R. (2024). Ecological footprints, carbon emissions, and energy transitions: The impact of artificial intelligence (AI). Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03520-5

Wang, Y., Wu, Z., & Zhang, G. (2022). Firms and climate change: A review of carbon risk in corporate finance. Carbon Neutrality, 1(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-022-00005-9

Widyantoro, T., & Rusmanto, T. (2025). Enhancing green innovation and financial performance: The role of stakeholder pressures and green dynamic capabilities. Frontiers in Climate, 7, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1599894

Wu, Q., & Zhou, P. (2025). How does artificial intelligence change carbon emission intensity? A firm lifecycle perspective. Applied Economics, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2025.2482927

Xie, H., Luo, J., & Tan, X. (2025). Artificial intelligence technology application and corporate ESG performance—evidence from national pilot zones for artificial intelligence innovation and application. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence, 8, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2025.1643684

Yu, X., Fan, L., & Yu, Y. (2025). Artificial intelligence and corporate ESG performance: A mechanism analysis based on corporate efficiency and external environment. Sustainability, 17(9), 3819. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17093819

Yuliana, Y., & Wedari, L. K. (2023). Carbon performance, green strategy, financial performance effect on carbon emissions disclosure: Evidence from high polluting industry in Indonesia. Internasional Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 18(5), 1581–1588.

Zhang, Z. (2022). Research on enterprise financial risk conduction mechanism. Systems, 10, 247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10060247

Zhao, J., Shahbaz, M., Dong, X., & Dong, K. (2021). How does financial risk affect global CO2 emissions ? The role of technological innovation. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 168, 120751. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120751

Published
2026-10-23
How to Cite
Isnaini Nuzula Agustin, Jolin, & Badriatul Mawadah. (2026). Does Artificial Intelligence Moderate the Effect of Carbon Risk on Firm Financial Risk in Indonesia. International Journal of Science and Society, 8(4), 421-436. https://doi.org/10.54783/ijsoc.v8i4.1787